The Whip, Fade, Reverse, Repeat Cycle Continues
KR Opinion
Markets jumped again overnight on another headline, this time an extended ceasefire, with the Pakistanis evidently negotiating for more time. Shortly after that, in the evening, we saw JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan canceled, and markets haven’t reacted much worse, still holding reasonably positive overnight. But this is really just part of the regime I’ve been talking about, with markets continuing to bounce in a range.
As I was telling a friend on Tuesday, it’s more of a stick-your-head-in-the-sand-and-see-if-it’s-over-yet kind of situation. The volatility, the starts and stops, all of those things are most likely part of Trump’s style, which most people look at as chaotic, but he’s dealing with what he can tell the public and what he wants adversaries and allies alike not to know about the situation, not what he wants them to know about the situation.
So we’re continuing to see these choppy markets, and as I said, the only thing the markets are really trying to figure out is how much higher they’re going to go. There’s not a lot of fear in the markets right now. Economic metrics continue to come in strong, and we saw more strong numbers. Today, there’s really not anything coming out but mortgage applications. But even yesterday, mortgage companies did fairly well, and real estate companies had a bit of a bounce, so there’s optimism all around the street as you look around. We did have a reasonably negative session yesterday, and where we were down yesterday, we’re back up today, so that’s part of that sideways, choppy market.
As we come through the week, there’s not much to look at today. We’ll have a bit more information on Thursday when we’ll get some labor statistics, but tomorrow is one of the lightest days. There are some earnings coming out, nothing earth-shattering that’s likely to cause much movement in the markets. The continuing claims expectations are coming in a bit better than they have over the last couple of months, but there’s really nothing there at all.
As I’ve been telling you, the market regime is a solid backdrop of good economic metrics, with choppy markets and an underlying bullish tone. As I said, the large tranche of orders that came into the Wave Tech Database on Monday is just the beginning of 150 to 200-day forward-looking expectations. It’s not on every stock, but at least somewhere around 50 to 65% of all those stocks will appreciate. So there’s likely to be a solid tone as we come toward the summer and ultimately emerge on the other side of the summer months, where we’ll see what comes out of the rhetoric of the war and what possibilities are next.
Economic Reports This Week
Apr 22
07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index For: 04/18 | Trading Impact: Low | KR Forecast: NA | KR Cons: NA | Prior: 1.8%
10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories For: 04/18 | Trading Impact: High | KR Forecast: NA | KR Cons: NA | Prior: -0.913M
Apr 23
08:30 ET: Initial Claims For: 04/18 | Trading Impact: High | KR Forecast: 210K | KR Cons: 212K | Prior: 207K
08:30 ET: Continuing Claims For: 04/11 | Trading Impact: High | KR Forecast: NA | KR Cons: NA | Prior: 1818K
09:45 ET: S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Prelim For: Apr | Trading Impact: Medium | KR Forecast: NA | KR Cons: NA | Prior: 52.3
09:45 ET: S&P Global U.S. Services PMI - Prelim For: Apr | Trading Impact: Medium | KR Forecast: NA | KR Cons: NA | Prior: 49.8
10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories For: 04/18 | Trading Impact: Low | KR Forecast: NA | KR Cons: NA | Prior: +59 bcf
Apr 24
10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final For: Apr | Trading Impact: Low | KR Forecast: 48.0 | KR Cons: 47.6 | Prior: 47.6
WaveTech Database
